TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Exactly 2 songs
- Kalshi
Exactly 2 songs - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 30, 2:26 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Olivia Rodrigo's chart performance on the Billboard Hot 100 as of July 4, 2026, specifically measuring how many of her songs appear in the top 10 positions. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific count of her songs charting in that elite tier during that week.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by counting the total number of Olivia Rodrigo songs appearing in the top 10 positions of the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated July 4, 2026. Each market outcome resolves to Yes if her charting songs match that exact count—ranging from zero songs to all ten top 10 positions. The resolution source is the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified date. This market is not endorsed by Billboard, and references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information from music industry participants, radio programmers, and chart analysts. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on surveys or expert opinion, this market prices outcomes based on continuous trading and financial incentives to be accurate. Comparing the current odds here to published chart predictions from Billboard analysts or music industry forecasters can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk that conventional analysis may have missed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing Yes or No outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; a contract trading at 0.72 implies roughly a 72% chance of that outcome occurring. As new information surfaces—such as album announcements, streaming data, or chart positioning—traders adjust their positions, moving the price in real time to reflect updated expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the Billboard Hot 100 chart for that week is published and verified. The outcome is determined by whether Olivia Rodrigo holds at least one song in the Top 10 positions on the official Billboard Hot 100 chart on that date. Resolution is confirmed once the result is verifiable from credible public reporting and official chart data, at which point all positions settle according to the final outcome.
Major catalysts include new album or single announcements from Olivia Rodrigo, streaming performance metrics, radio airplay trends, and competing releases from other artists. Chart performance in the weeks leading up to July 2026 will directly influence trader positioning. Industry news—such as award nominations, tour announcements, or collaborations—can shift momentum. Additionally, broader music industry trends, playlist placements on major platforms, and social media engagement will all factor into how traders reassess the probability of a Top 10 chart position by the resolution date.
