TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 6.5M
- Kalshi
Above 6.5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 16, 6:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a popular musician achieves specific levels of global daily views on a major video platform during a defined week. The outcome depends on whether the artist's content attracts viewership exceeding certain thresholds within the specified timeframe.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Olivia Rodrigo attains specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube during September 14–20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view-count benchmark (ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million). If, at any point during the week, the artist's global daily views exceed the threshold associated with a given market—as measured via YouTube Charts from a New York IP address—that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding geographic variability and disclaimers about YouTube non-endorsement. The resolution relies solely on the highest daily view count achieved by the artist within the window, with each market evaluating a unique numeric criterion.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as predictions about daily view counts are not frequently made by traditional analysts. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or expert opinions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes, potentially leading to a more nuanced and accurate prediction than a single analyst’s estimate. It's possible that broader entertainment industry trends will influence both.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, also influence price discovery, allowing for efficient and accurate price signals.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count Olivia Rodrigo achieves across all major video platforms (such as YouTube, TikTok, and Vevo) between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026. The specific data source used to verify the view counts will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available upon resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any major announcements regarding Olivia Rodrigo’s new music releases, promotional activities, or public appearances during the specified timeframe would likely impact the market. Unexpected viral trends featuring her music or performances could also drive up view counts. Furthermore, broader shifts in social media usage or changes to video platform algorithms could play a role. Finally, general public interest in Olivia Rodrigo, as reflected in social media engagement and media coverage, will be a key signal for traders.
