TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.9b
24H VOL:
$225,546,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,816,443,416
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,867,230,198
490,493
Markets across
36,414
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,838
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Above 4M
- Kalshi
Above 4M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 20, 2026
Closed: Oct 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a popular musician's YouTube views over a specific week. It focuses on whether the artist achieves certain thresholds of global daily views during the designated period. The outcome depends on view counts recorded from a specific geographic location.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Olivia Rodrigo attains specified global daily view thresholds on YouTube within the week of October 12–18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct view-count benchmark, ranging from above 4 million to above 8 million views. All markets share identical secondary rules: view counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address, and neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets. The resolution hinges on whether, at any point during the week, the artist's global daily views surpass the respective threshold for each market. The use of a New York IP address standardizes the data collection process to ensure consistency across all markets.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Olivia Rodrigo’s viewership. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and real-time sentiment than traditional polls or analyst predictions. This can lead to differences, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If analyst predictions suggest a different outcome than what's priced into this market, it could present a potential trading opportunity for those who believe the analysts are more accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the changing expectations. The market’s depth, indicated by the bid-ask spread, shows how readily traders can execute trades at different price points, providing insight into the market’s liquidity and confidence in its predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which daily view count for Olivia Rodrigo’s content was the highest between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from official sources that track video views, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to understand how the data is being interpreted.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Olivia Rodrigo’s new music releases, promotional appearances, or social media activity would likely impact expectations for her viewership. Unexpected viral trends featuring her music or content could also drive up the market price. Conversely, negative publicity or a decline in her overall popularity could lead to a decrease in the market price. Monitoring news, social media trends, and any official statements from her team will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.
