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Closed: Sep 12, 10:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Ohio State and Texas. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to settle the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Ohio State versus Texas college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the specified team must win the third quarter by exceeding the stated point margin—for example, Texas winning by more than 10.5 points or Ohio State winning by more than 2.5 points. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, the markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The markets cover a range of differentials for both teams, allowing participants to bet on varying levels of dominance in that specific quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe one outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, Texas winning the 3rd quarter by over 10.5 points, or Ohio State winning or tying. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and place bets, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the game's potential outcome in the 3rd quarter.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score differential in the 3rd quarter of the Ohio State vs. Texas game will determine whether Texas wins by over 10.5 points, or if Ohio State wins or ties. The result will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process for all participants.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated betting trends, could cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market. Unexpected announcements about team strategy could also be a catalyst.