TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 4:34 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than initial analyst predictions regarding the potential viewership of a MrBeast video. While analysts may rely on historical data and brand recognition, the market incorporates a wider range of factors, including current trends, social media buzz, and the specific content of the upcoming video. This dynamic interplay can lead to discrepancies between the two, offering a unique view of likely outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective intelligence of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with increased buying pressure driving the price up and increased selling pressure driving it down. This creates a dynamic pricing system that continuously updates as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the next MrBeast video during its first week of release is verifiable from credible public reporting. The view count will be sourced from YouTube analytics and other publicly available data. The market will settle to the closest available number of views within the specified timeframe. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, reflecting the actual performance of the video.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. A trailer release showcasing the video's content could generate substantial hype and drive up predictions. Unexpected collaborations with other popular creators could also boost anticipated viewership. Conversely, negative publicity or controversies surrounding MrBeast could dampen expectations. The overall social media buzz and trending topics related to the video will be key indicators. Any official announcements from MrBeast's team regarding the video’s release date or content are also likely to impact trading activity in this market.