TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
25–30M
- Polymarket
25–30M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 13, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts or YouTube growth models. While analysts may rely on historical averages of MrBeast's prior video performance and seasonal trends, market participants incorporate breaking news, platform algorithm changes, and promotional activity closer to release. Markets tend to update faster than published analyst reports, making them a forward-looking signal. Comparing Polymarket odds to independent creator-analytics platforms can reveal whether traders are pricing in expectations above or below baseline historical performance.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a set of outcome ranges (e.g., 0–10M, 10–20M, 20–30M views, etc.), with each range assigned a probability-weighted contract price between 0 and 1 cent. Traders buy or sell shares in their chosen outcome range; the sum of all outcome prices equals 1 cent at resolution. Price discovery happens through continuous order-book matching, and the market weight reflects aggregate trader belief about where MrBeast's next video will land on day one. Higher-priced ranges indicate stronger collective confidence in those view-count brackets.
The market resolves on Jun 14, 2026, marking the end of the first 24 hours following the next MrBeast video's public release. The outcome is determined by the official view count recorded on YouTube at that timestamp. Resolution hinges on identifying which outcome range the final view total falls into, with no partial credit awarded. Once YouTube's count is finalized and verified, the winning outcome range is confirmed and traders' positions settle accordingly.
Several catalysts can shift market odds before resolution. Announcement of the video's topic, thumbnail reveal, or release time can signal expected virality and move odds upward or downward. YouTube algorithm changes, platform outages, or competing viral content on release day will influence early traction. MrBeast's current subscriber count, recent video performance, and any promotional partnerships or celebrity collaborations disclosed pre-launch all feed trader expectations. Real-time view counts during the first hours post-release create feedback loops—if early momentum exceeds or trails market expectations, traders will adjust positions accordingly.
