TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
polymarket

# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Volume:
$382,470

25–30M

 - Polymarket

25–30M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25–30M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20–25M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30–35M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35–40M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40–45M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45–50M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50M+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,760
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks the view count MrBeast's next YouTube video will accumulate within its first 24 hours of publication. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that the video receives between 35 and 40 million views on day 1—stands at 47.0%, while the 30 to 35 million view range is at 44.0%. Resolution will be determined by the view counter on MrBeast's YouTube channel. Watch for MrBeast's next video upload, as the market will not resolve until the full 24-hour period has elapsed following publication.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and often diverge from traditional analyst estimates. While media analysts may rely on historical averages or qualitative factors, prediction markets incorporate live information, social sentiment, and financial incentives for accuracy. MrBeast's viewership is highly volatile and depends on content novelty, promotion strategy, and release timing—factors that traders price in dynamically. Comparing Polymarket odds to published YouTube forecasts or entertainment analyst reports can reveal where the market sees upside or downside risk relative to conventional expectations.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official view count of MrBeast's next uploaded video measured across its first 24 hours on YouTube. The specific threshold outcomes—such as whether views fall below or exceed 20 million—are evaluated against YouTube's publicly displayed view counter. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for the 24-hour window to close and for view counts to stabilize, ensuring accuracy and preventing disputes.

Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. MrBeast's announcement of upload timing, video topic, or collaborators will influence trader expectations. Major platform algorithm changes or YouTube policy shifts affecting video promotion could impact day-one reach. Real-time view velocity during the first hours of release will drive rapid repricing as actual performance data emerges. Competing high-profile uploads, trending events, or MrBeast's social media promotion intensity will also move the market. Finally, any technical issues or unexpected delays in the video release could trigger significant repricing.