TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
35-40M
- Polymarket
35-40M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 1, 2026
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide point estimates for the expected views, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution across a range of possible outcomes. If analysts predict a specific view count, we can see if the market assigns a higher probability to outcomes above or below that estimate. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than traditional analysis, or where the market incorporates factors analysts may have overlooked.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing different view count ranges for the MrBeast video. The price of each share reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s liquidity and volume indicate the level of confidence and interest in each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-day view count for the next MrBeast video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the publicly available view count data released by YouTube. The market will determine which view count range was actually achieved, and shares in the winning range will payout according to the market’s pricing at the time of resolution. This allows traders to profit from accurately predicting the video’s initial performance.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding the content of the upcoming MrBeast video – such as the scale of the challenge, featured guests, or promotional efforts – could influence expectations. Major shifts in MrBeast’s subscriber count or YouTube’s algorithm could also impact predicted views. Unexpected events affecting internet access or social media trends could also play a role. Increased trading volume driven by significant news or a change in sentiment will likely lead to price adjustments in this market.
