TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
35–40M
- Polymarket
35–40M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 4, 2026
Latest in Social
Time left: 06d:21h:46m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
$
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide point estimates for the number of views MrBeast's next video will receive, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution across a range of outcomes. Currently, the most probable outcome, with a chance of 30.5%, is that MrBeast's next video will get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1. This differs from typical analyst predictions which often focus on a single expected value, potentially missing the uncertainty inherent in predicting viral content.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different view count ranges for MrBeast’s next video. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current price indicates the collective belief about the likelihood of each view count range being exceeded on the first day of the video’s release.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final view count for MrBeast’s next video on its first day will be sourced from publicly available data, such as YouTube analytics. The market will settle based on the verified number of views achieved within the first 24 hours of the video’s release. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, reflecting the actual performance of the video.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding MrBeast’s upcoming video, such as the topic, featured guests, or promotional efforts, could impact trader sentiment. A successful or unsuccessful launch of a previous video could also influence expectations. Unexpected events affecting YouTube’s algorithm or broader social media trends could also play a role. Furthermore, any major news events that capture public attention could divert views away from the video, potentially shifting the probabilities reflected in this market.
