TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
30–35M
- Polymarket
30–35M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 20, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than individual analysts might consider. While external forecasts may offer a baseline expectation for the next MrBeast video’s performance, the dynamic pricing in this market reflects real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different view count ranges for the next MrBeast video. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that view count range being achieved, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a specific outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system that constantly adjusts to new information and shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final view count for the next MrBeast video on its first day is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube analytics, representing the total number of views accumulated within the first 24 hours of the video’s release. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, reflecting the actual performance of the video as measured by official metrics.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Announcements regarding the video's content, collaborations, or promotional campaigns could influence expectations and drive trading activity. Unexpected news related to MrBeast or his channel could also impact sentiment. Furthermore, the performance of previous MrBeast videos, particularly those with similar themes or formats, may serve as a benchmark for traders. Any information that alters perceptions of the video’s potential reach and appeal could lead to shifts in the odds and volume within this market.
