TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
<20M
- Polymarket
<20M - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 26, 4:13 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because they aggregate real-money incentives rather than opinion surveys. Traders in this market face direct financial consequences for accuracy, which can sharpen forecasts compared to casual polling. However, analyst models may incorporate proprietary data or domain expertise that markets haven't yet priced in. The best approach is to treat both signals as complementary: market odds reveal crowd conviction, while expert analysis provides context on underlying drivers like content quality, promotion, and audience trends.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker (AMM) that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome in this market has a share price between 0 and 1, where higher prices reflect greater perceived likelihood. As traders purchase shares predicting higher or lower day-1 view counts, the pool rebalances and prices shift. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and trader sentiment in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once the first 24-hour view count for the next MrBeast video is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual view total against the predetermined thresholds set for each outcome option. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for the data to be confirmed and reported. Traders should monitor the official video metrics as they become available to track whether their positions align with the emerging result.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Announcements of upcoming MrBeast content, collaborations, or special events may boost trader confidence in high view counts. Changes in YouTube's algorithm, platform policy, or trending topics could affect initial traction. Real-time view data released during the first 24 hours will be the strongest signal, causing sharp repricing as the actual performance becomes clear. Social media buzz, competitor activity, and broader entertainment trends may also influence trader positioning and market sentiment.
