TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast Gaming gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast Gaming does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast Gaming's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast Gaming's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast Gaming gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast Gaming does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast Gaming's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast Gaming's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of the number of views the next MrBeast Gaming video will receive on day one. While specific analyst forecasts aren’t directly integrated into Polymarket, it’s common to see differences between expert predictions and the wisdom of the crowd. This market allows for a real-time assessment of expectations, potentially identifying areas where the market anticipates a higher or lower view count than traditional analysts. The market’s dynamic pricing adjusts as new information emerges and traders react to news and trends.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing different view count ranges. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on their own research and beliefs, leading to a fluctuating market price. This creates a dynamic and informative signal about the expected performance of the MrBeast Gaming video. The current implied probabilities are visible directly on the market page.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for the next MrBeast Gaming video on its first day is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the publicly available view count reported by YouTube. The market will then determine which outcome – the view count range – was the most accurate prediction. Traders holding shares in the winning range will receive a payout based on the market’s pricing at the time of resolution.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding the video’s content, collaborations with other popular creators, or the timing of the release could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to MrBeast or the gaming community could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, any early indicators of viewership, such as pre-release hype on social media, may lead to adjustments in the odds. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market leading up to Oct 12, 2026.
