TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
58.5–59.25M
- Polymarket
58.5–59.25M - Polymarket
1W
News
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Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 4, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 4, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 168 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 168 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-money incentives and crowd wisdom. While entertainment analysts might rely on historical performance, channel growth trends, and content type, this market reflects what traders are actually willing to bet. Prediction markets tend to update faster when new information emerges—such as promotional activity or algorithm changes—whereas analyst estimates may lag. The 57-million-view threshold serves as a concrete benchmark, making direct comparison between market odds and expert predictions straightforward and actionable.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that balances supply and demand for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the probability implied by the latest trades: a higher price means traders believe the video is more likely to exceed 57 million views in week one, while a lower price suggests the opposite. As traders buy or sell shares, the price adjusts dynamically. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information or sentiment shifts.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the first week of views for MrBeast's next video can be verified from credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether the total view count falls below or meets or exceeds the 57-million-view threshold. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed for accurate reporting and confirmation. Traders should monitor the video's release date and early performance metrics, as the one-week window is fixed from the moment the video goes live.
Several catalysts can shift odds before resolution. Announcements of the video's topic, release date, or promotional strategy often trigger trading surges. Changes to YouTube's algorithm or trending dynamics may alter expectations about reach. MrBeast's recent video performance and subscriber growth provide baseline signals. Real-time view counts during the first week will drive the most dramatic price movements as traders react to actual performance versus predictions. Platform changes, viral moments, or unexpected controversies could also influence whether the video reaches the 57-million threshold.
