TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
70-80M
- Polymarket
70-80M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 15, 2026
Closed: Aug 15, 2:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether MrBeast's next YouTube video will achieve between 70 and 80 million views in its first week, with an aggregated consensus probability of 97.8%, and a secondary outcome of between 80 and 90 million views at 2.3%, drawing data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on MrBeast's YouTube channel. The outcome will be determined by the actual view count within the first 7 days after the video is posted, with the betting period ending on August 15, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets consistently use MrBeast's YouTube channel view count for the next video posted as the sole resolution source, with clear thresholds or ranges defining outcomesPrimary resolution logic: MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast)Core resolution logic:
- The next full-length YouTube video posted by MrBeast after market creation determines resolution
- Views counted during the first 7 days from the video's posting date determine the outcome
- Threshold/range comparisons use the official YouTube view counter for that specific video
- If MrBeast fails to post a qualifying video by August 31 2026, markets resolve to the lowest range bracket
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Exact threshold match: For Polymarket range markets, values falling exactly between brackets resolve to the higher range bracket
- Video eligibility: Only full-length MrBeast YouTube videos count — Shorts, previews, and other content types are excluded
- Late posting: If no qualifying video is posted by August 31 2026, all markets resolve to the lowest range bracket
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Kalshi
This event assesses whether Justin Bieber attains certain global daily YouTube view thresholds between August 3-9, 2026. Seven markets are defined, each with a distinct view-count requirement (from above 15.25M to above 17M). A market resolves to Yes if Bieber’s global daily views exceed its specified threshold on any day within the period. Verification is done via YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting Global as the location. As with the previous event, YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any mentions of YouTube are for descriptive purposes only.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a strong consensus that the video will hit certain view milestones, with odds shaped by trader sentiment rather than traditional analyst reports. While analysts might offer their own projections based on historical performance and trends, prediction market odds incorporate real-time betting data and can shift rapidly with new information or hype surrounding the release. The current pricing shows where traders believe the outcome lies, often diverging from or confirming expert views.
Several signals could shift this market before it closes. Early view counts released shortly after the video drops will heavily influence trader sentiment. Media coverage, social media buzz, and any viral moments surrounding the content can also drive rapid price changes. Additionally, if competing content garners unusually high attention during the same period, it could dampen expectations and move the odds toward lower-view outcomes.