TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
60–61M
- Polymarket
60–61M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 5, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 5, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 144 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 144 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "I Survived 7 Days in the Arctic", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpQSUjNsNm0. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts or social media engagement predictions. While analysts may rely on historical MrBeast video performance data and algorithmic models, prediction markets incorporate live information and financial incentives that reward accuracy. Comparing Polymarket odds to independent forecasts from YouTube analytics experts or entertainment analysts can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert opinion on day-six view velocity.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the day-six view count for a MrBeast video is priced as a binary or range-based outcome contract, where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different view brackets. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by Polymarket participants. As the video's release date approaches and actual view data emerges, prices adjust to reflect new information. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether the video will land in their chosen range by day six.
The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, marking the end of the sixth full day following the video's release. Resolution is determined by the official view count recorded on the MrBeast channel at that time. The specific outcome depends on which view threshold bracket the actual count falls into, as defined by the market's outcome categories. Traders' positions settle based on whether their predicted range matches the final verified view total.
Several factors can shift market odds before resolution. Major social media amplification, celebrity mentions, or viral clips from the video can accelerate view accumulation. Conversely, negative publicity or platform algorithm changes could dampen growth. The timing of the video's release relative to competing content, weekend versus weekday dynamics, and MrBeast's current subscriber base all influence day-six velocity. Real-time view count updates visible on YouTube will anchor trader expectations as the sixth day progresses, causing continuous price adjustments on Polymarket.
