TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
54–55M
- Polymarket
54–55M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 3, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 96 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 96 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "I Survived 7 Days in the Arctic", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpQSUjNsNm0. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations about MrBeast's day-four view count. These market-derived probabilities often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts or YouTube trend reports because traders incorporate real-time performance data, audience sentiment, and historical benchmarks. While analysts may rely on channel growth rates and typical video decay patterns, prediction markets price in dynamic factors like social media buzz and viewer retention. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether the market is pricing in more optimism or skepticism than conventional media analysis suggests.
On Polymarket, this market is structured around the outcome "Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4?" On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to yes or no positions, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. The current market probability reflects the consensus view among active traders. As the video releases and day-four view data accumulates, prices adjust continuously to reflect updated expectations about whether the threshold will be met or exceeded.
The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official view count recorded on YouTube for MrBeast's next video during its fourth full day of availability. The specific criteria—such as which timezone defines day four and how YouTube's view counter is measured at the cutoff moment—are established in the market's terms. Traders should review the full resolution rules on Polymarket before trading to understand exactly how the outcome will be verified and settled.
Several factors could shift market odds before resolution. The video's actual release date and initial 24-hour performance will provide concrete data on viewer appetite and engagement velocity. Social media virality, celebrity mentions, or algorithmic promotion on YouTube could accelerate view accumulation. Conversely, controversy or negative reception might suppress day-four viewership. Competitor releases or major news events could redirect audience attention. Real-time view counts published by YouTube or third-party trackers will continuously inform trader expectations, causing prices to converge toward the likely outcome as day four approaches and unfolds.
