TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
43-44M
- Polymarket
43-44M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 30, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 72 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 72 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 72 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 72 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders actively betting real money on outcomes, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on historical patterns, audience engagement metrics, and content creator track records. This market's odds may diverge from traditional analyst estimates because traders incorporate breaking news, social media momentum, and real-time viewer behavior that analysts might lag in capturing. Comparing the two can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in factors analysts have overlooked or underweighted.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares tied to different view-count outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective probability estimate at any moment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price moves as new information emerges—such as early-day view counts, social media engagement, or platform algorithm changes—allowing participants to profit from accurate predictions. Share prices range from near-zero to near-certain, with the spread between bid and ask reflecting liquidity and disagreement among traders.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, at which point the final view count for day three of the MrBeast video will be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual number of views recorded on that specific day, confirmed once the data is publicly available and auditable. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed to ensure the count is stable and no further significant view additions are expected for that calendar day.
Early view velocity in the first 24 hours is a critical signal—strong initial performance typically predicts sustained momentum into day three. Media coverage, celebrity endorsements, or viral social media moments can drive unexpected spikes in viewership. Platform algorithm changes, competing content releases, or shifts in audience attention could dampen growth. Additionally, any controversies or technical issues affecting the video's visibility may reshape trader expectations, causing significant price swings as participants reassess the likelihood of hitting specific view thresholds.
