TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
37–39M
- Polymarket
37–39M - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 48 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 48 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 48 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 48 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Which Stranger Would You Chain Yourself To For $250,000?", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYlODtkyw_I. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader behavior and financial incentives rather than relying on static models. In this market, traders are directly betting capital on the outcome, which typically produces more dynamic and responsive estimates than published analyst reports. Comparing the current odds to any available industry forecasts can reveal whether the prediction community is pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert consensus.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent different outcome ranges for day 2 views. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker model where the price of each outcome reflects the cumulative trading activity and current belief distribution across all participants. As traders adjust their positions based on new information, the odds shift continuously to reflect updated market sentiment.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the actual view count for day 2 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the final verified view total against the specific range or threshold defined in the market conditions. Resolution typically occurs shortly after the data is publicly available and confirmed, allowing traders to settle their positions based on the confirmed result.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Early day 2 view velocity—whether the video gains or loses momentum compared to typical MrBeast releases—often triggers rapid repricing. Major platform algorithm changes, viral moments, or unexpected controversies surrounding the creator or content can also drive sharp moves. Additionally, real-time view count updates from YouTube throughout day 2 will continuously inform trader positioning as the actual outcome becomes clearer.
