TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
9-10m
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9-10m - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its seventh weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its seventh weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than individual expert opinion. On this market, traders are directly wagering on the seventh-weekend outcome, which can lead to sharper price discovery than published analyst estimates. Analysts may rely on historical decay patterns and studio guidance, while market participants incorporate a broader range of signals—including social media sentiment, competitor releases, and real-time box office data. The continuous repricing on prediction markets typically captures emerging information faster than periodic analyst updates, making them a complementary lens for understanding expectations around the film's performance trajectory.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the seventh-weekend box office performance for the film is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed by comparing actual reported figures against the predefined outcome ranges offered in the market. Resolution hinges on official box office data becoming available and being reconciled with the market's terms. Traders should monitor announcements from major box office tracking services and studio reports in the days following the seventh weekend to understand when final settlement will occur and which outcome bracket the film's actual performance falls into.
Several catalysts could shift prices significantly before this market resolves. Competitor film releases, critical reviews, or social media momentum could alter expectations around audience interest and repeat viewership. Real-time box office reports from earlier weekends provide crucial data points—stronger-than-expected early performance typically signals staying power, while softer numbers may suggest faster decay. Marketing campaigns, award season developments, or unexpected news about the film could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader entertainment industry trends, streaming availability announcements, or shifts in theatrical attendance patterns may prompt repricing as participants reassess the likelihood of each outcome band.
