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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 21, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 6th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from a broad set of traders with skin in the game, whereas analyst estimates typically reflect a smaller group of industry experts. This market's odds reflect what traders are actually willing to risk, not just what analysts publicly project. When major box office reports drop or industry news breaks, prediction markets often adjust faster than formal forecasts. Comparing this market's current odds to published analyst ranges can reveal where consensus is strongest or where contrarian positioning may be building.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that balances buy and sell orders on each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the cumulative belief of all active traders at that moment. As new information surfaces—box office performance data, industry reports, or broader entertainment trends—traders adjust their positions, and the market price moves accordingly. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the odds stay responsive to changing expectations about the film's sixth weekend performance.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the sixth weekend box office results for the film are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed against widely recognized box office tracking sources that report final domestic earnings for that specific weekend. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell positions as new information and box office trends develop. Resolution timing depends on when official box office data becomes publicly available and verified.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly before resolution. Actual box office performance in earlier weekends will provide concrete data on audience appetite and staying power. Major entertainment news—casting changes, director statements, or competing releases—can reshape expectations. Industry reports on advance ticket sales, social media sentiment, and critic reviews all influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader box office trends, seasonal viewing patterns, and unexpected competition could trigger repricing. Real-time weekend earnings reports as the sixth weekend approaches will likely drive the most dramatic market moves.
