TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
>19m
- Polymarket
>19m - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the domestic box office gross for the film "Obsession" during its third weekend of release. On Polymarket, the probability that third weekend box office will exceed 19 million dollars stands at 97.5%, with a 1.6% probability of a sub-16 million result. Resolution will be determined by Daily Box Office Performance figures from The Numbers' Box Office tab for the film. Watch the film's actual third weekend performance as it unfolds around the June 1, 2026 resolution date to see whether the strong leading probability holds.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect crowdsourced expectations from traders with real money at stake, often differing from traditional analyst forecasts. While studio analysts and box office tracking services rely on historical data and survey methods, prediction markets incorporate live sentiment and breaking news in real time. Comparing the current market probability to published forecasts from industry trackers like Box Office Pro or Deadline can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk. Prediction markets typically outperform single-analyst predictions because they aggregate dispersed information across many participants, making them a valuable cross-check against conventional wisdom.
The market resolves at Jun 1, 2026, after the third weekend box office figures for "Obsession" are officially reported. Resolution hinges on whether the film's domestic gross for that weekend period meets or exceeds the $19 million threshold specified in the market. Official box office data from sources like Box Office Mojo or studio reports will determine the final outcome. Traders should monitor the release schedule and any competing films that could affect "Obsession" performance during that critical third weekend window. Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles and payouts are distributed to winning positions.
Several catalysts could shift the market before Jun 1, 2026. Strong or weak opening weekend performance will be the primary signal—a breakout debut typically predicts stronger staying power into week three. Critical reviews, audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes or IMDb, and word-of-mouth sentiment can drive repeat viewership or drop-off. Competition from new releases in weeks two and three will directly impact "Obsession" box office share. Marketing spend and promotional events may boost awareness. Box office tracking updates from industry analysts will provide real-time forecasts that traders incorporate into their bids. Finally, broader entertainment trends, awards buzz, or unexpected cultural moments could influence audience interest in the film.
