TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 16, 12:05 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in a scheduled match, focusing on the margin of victory. Depending on the specific outcome, different thresholds for goal differentials will determine the result. The event provides various perspectives on how decisively either team might win.
The event covers a professional USL Championship soccer match between Oakland Roots SC and Monterey Bay FC scheduled for August 15, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Oakland Roots SC winning by more than 2.5 goals, Oakland Roots SC winning by more than 1.5 goals, Monterey Bay FC winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Monterey Bay FC winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these specific conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction market odds often diverge due to different participant motivations and information sources. While sportsbooks may set lines based on broader public betting trends and adjusted margins, traders on Kalshi price outcomes based on their own assessments and real-time data. This can lead to variations in implied probabilities, especially as new information emerges or trading volume changes. Observing both can provide complementary insights into market expectations for the Oakland-Monterey spread market.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the odds through buying and selling contracts, which determines the current implied probability. The pricing reflects the aggregated expectations of participants about which team will cover the spread. As new information emerges — such as lineup changes or pitch conditions — the market price adjusts dynamically based on Kalshi user activity and volume of $2,405.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official match score after full-time, factoring in any relevant tie-breaking procedures if needed. As the event date approaches, trading activity may intensify based on updated forecasts, team news, and shifting expectations. The final spread result will be compared against this market to settle all positions.