TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on determining the margin of victory in the final quarter of a football game between two teams. Each outcome represents a different point differential threshold that must be surpassed for the market to settle positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the fourth quarter of play, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. Each market specifies a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either the Tennessee Titans or New York Jets to result in a 'Yes' outcome. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to substantial gaps such as over 10.5 points, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in the final quarter. The resolution depends entirely on the game's official score at the end of regulation, disregarding any subsequent overtime activity. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold must be evaluated separately against the actual fourth-quarter point differential.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their initial odds based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting patterns, prediction markets continuously update as traders buy and sell contracts, potentially leading to a different assessment of the probability of various outcomes for the Jets-Titans 4th quarter spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy contracts and ask to sell them. The price of a contract represents the probability of that specific spread occurring in the 4th quarter. As more traders believe the Titans will win by over 7.5 points, for example, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, indicating the level of demand and supply for each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score difference in the 4th quarter of the Jets-Titans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, determining whether the Titans win the 4th quarter by more or less than the specified spread. The final point differential will be the determining factor for which contracts payout, and the market will settle accordingly based on the official result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Jets or Titans would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also shift the market. In-game performance during the first three quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing or a surprising defensive strategy, could also impact traders’ expectations and lead to price fluctuations. Overall, any information that alters the perceived probability of the Titans covering the spread will likely move this market.