TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of an upcoming NFL game between the New York Jets and the Detroit Lions. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to resolve as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference between the New York Jets and Detroit Lions during the third quarter of their game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market specifies a different point threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team for a 'Yes' resolution. Points scored in any other quarter are irrelevant to these markets. If the specified threshold is met or exceeded by either team in the third quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. The official game result, including any overtime or tie scenarios in the third quarter, will determine resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public sentiment and expert analysis. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents actual money on the line, incentivizing more accurate predictions. You may find that this market moves closer to sportsbook odds as more information becomes available, such as injury reports or weather forecasts. However, discrepancies can persist, offering potential value for informed traders who identify mispricings relative to their own assessment of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. Buying a contract is essentially betting that the spread will be favorable to that outcome, while selling a contract is betting against it. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter point spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by the NFL. Traders who correctly predicted the direction and magnitude of the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the game closely as the third quarter progresses to understand how the market is likely to settle.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Jets or the Lions would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also shift the market. In-game performance during the first and second quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing or a key turnover, will undoubtedly influence trading activity. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media buzz, could also move the price of contracts in this market.