TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK
Volume:
$5,678,763
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Europa League match between Nottingham Forest FC (home) and Fenerbahçe SK scheduled for February 26, 2026. Polymarket offers three binary markets (Nottingham win, draw, Fenerbahçe win), while Kalshi offers four goal-differential markets (win margins >1.5 and >2.5 goals for each team). All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers binary outcome markets (win/draw/loss), while Kalshi offers goal-differential threshold markets. These are different market types with no direct logical equivalence, creating scope divergence rather than a contradiction.Hero Tip:
Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things. Polymarket resolves on any Nottingham win (1-0, 2-0, 5-0); Kalshi requires specific margins. A close Nottingham victory (1-0) pays on Polymarket but not on any Kalshi market. Conversely, a 3-0 Nottingham win pays on all Polymarket and Kalshi Nottingham markets. Treat these as separate trading opportunities, not hedges.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary markets covering all possible match outcomes: Nottingham win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), Fenerbahçe win (Yes/No). Cancellation without makeup resolves draw to Yes, win markets to No. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Four independent goal-differential markets: Nottingham >2.5 margin win, Nottingham >1.5 margin win, Fenerbahçe >1.5 margin win, Fenerbahçe >2.5 margin win. Each resolves Yes only if the specified condition is met. No explicit cancellation clause. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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