TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 4:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Thelo Aasgaard will score at least one goal during the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup match. On Kalshi, the probability of Aasgaard recording 1+ goals stands at 99.0%. The market resolves based on official goal records from the complete match, including regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra periods. Watch for the match kickoff on June 26, 2026, when the final outcome will be determined.
Each market measures whether a designated player achieves a specified goal threshold (1+, 2+, or 3+) during the complete Norway vs France FIFA World Cup match on June 26, 2026, including regulation, stoppage, and extra time periods. If a player is roster-active but does not enter the game, the market settles at the last fair price before kickoff. Once a player enters the match, settlement is determined by the total goals scored by that player during play.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets like this one are driven by trader consensus without a built-in house edge. This market aggregates the beliefs of many independent participants wagering real capital, which can surface inefficiencies or contrarian views that traditional sportsbooks may not price in. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to conventional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for each goalscorer outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of any given outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last executed transaction—and the current spread between buy and sell orders. As new information arrives or trader conviction shifts, orders are placed and matched, moving prices up or down. This mechanism ensures that prices remain responsive to real-time developments and participant sentiment throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the Norway vs France match concludes and the final goalscorer data is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which player, if any, scores during the match. Positions are settled based on the verified result, with payouts distributed to holders of the correct outcome. Traders should monitor official match reports and reputable sports news outlets as the event approaches to stay informed on any developments that might affect resolution timing.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before Jun 26, 2026. Team news—such as injuries to key forwards, lineup announcements, or tactical changes—often triggers sharp repricing. Betting syndicate activity and sharp money flowing into particular outcomes can signal informed conviction. Pre-match analysis from respected analysts or media coverage highlighting a player's form or matchup advantage may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, odds can drift as the match approaches and the trading window narrows, reflecting final sentiment adjustments and reduced liquidity.