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404,028

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2,681

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5

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Norway vs. France - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Norway vs. France - First Team to Score

Volume:
$696,323

France

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

France

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$160,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

France

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$153,851
N/A
N/A
$128,692
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Norway

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$216,867
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Norway

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43,505
N/A
N/A
$38,003
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,584
N/A
N/A
$49,782
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on which team scores first in the Norway vs. France FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 26, 2026. The markets track the identity of the first goal-scorer across different time windows and handle scenarios where no goal is scored.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Time window scope mismatch between platforms. Kalshi includes extra time in resolution scope; Polymarket explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootouts, resolving only on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.Hero tip: If the match reaches extra time with no goal in the first 90 minutes, Polymarket will resolve to Neither, but Kalshi will remain open pending the outcome of extra time. Conversely, if a goal is scored in extra time, Kalshi resolves Yes but Polymarket is already settled at Neither. Confirm your market's time window before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes for Norway first goal, France first goal, or no goal at any point during the entire match including regulation, stoppage time, and extra time periods. Key Quote: 'during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)'
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Norway, France, or Neither based only on first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from resolution scope. Key Quote: 'This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Norway and France, scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "France" if France are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

This event tracks which team records the first goal in the Norway vs France FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 26, 2026, evaluated across the entire match including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If an own goal is the first goal of the match, resolution is based on the team awarded the goal. The market has three possible outcomes: Norway scores first, France scores first, or no goal is scored during the entire match. This market is descriptive only and has not been endorsed by FIFA.

Frequently asked questions

The first goalscorer market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which team will score the opening goal in the Norway versus France matchup. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of traders pricing the likelihood of each outcome. Cross-platform volume and probability shifts reveal how market participants are weighting the chances as the event approaches. By monitoring both venues, you gain visibility into whether one platform is leading price discovery or if a consensus view has emerged across the prediction ecosystem.

Prediction markets operate on continuous trader-set pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines, meaning odds update in real time as new information surfaces. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to balance liability and lock in margin, while prediction markets reflect the aggregate belief of participants with real money at stake. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbooks because traders on Polymarket and Kalshi incorporate different information sets and risk tolerances. Over time, prediction market prices often converge toward actual outcomes, making them a useful benchmark for comparing against locked-in sportsbook odds.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity pools, which can create temporary price gaps on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in trading volume, fee structures, and the timing of large orders can also push prices apart. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but if one platform has significantly deeper liquidity or attracts different trader demographics, pricing can remain divergent. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify which venue offers better value for your prediction.

Team news—injuries to key forwards or defensive players—can significantly shift odds, as can recent form, head-to-head records, and lineup announcements closer to kickoff. Betting syndicates and sharp traders often move markets on new information before casual participants react. Weather conditions, venue factors, and pre-match commentary from analysts may also influence trader positioning. Large single trades or coordinated activity from informed groups can trigger rapid repricing, so monitoring volume spikes and odds momentum helps you stay ahead of sentiment shifts.