TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans (W)
Volume:
$156,969
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between Northwestern Wildcats and Michigan State Spartans scheduled for February 18, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are attempting to resolve based on the final game outcome, but the resolution logic differs fundamentally between platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Northwestern win and Michigan State win) resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution rules are internally inconsistent and make it impossible for the No outcome to occur under any game result. Polymarket's binary design is the only resolvable version.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary outcome market with clear mutually exclusive resolution paths. Northwestern win resolves to Northwestern Wildcats, Michigan State win resolves to Michigan State Spartans. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50. Coherent and resolvable.
- Kalshi: Yes/No market with logical impossibility. Both Northwestern win and Michigan State win are stated to resolve to Yes, leaving no valid outcome path for No. This creates an unresolvable market design flaw.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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