TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Northern Ireland and Hungary, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margin-of-victory thresholds for the Northern Ireland vs Hungary UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 28, 2026. Four distinct outcome markets exist: Northern Ireland winning by more than 2.5 goals, Northern Ireland winning by more than 1.5 goals, Hungary winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Hungary winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team achieves the exact required goal differential; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, using publicly available match results as the sole determinant.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources or analytical approaches. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions based on evolving insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Northern Ireland vs Hungary match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on these interactions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on collective intelligence and new information.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Northern Ireland vs Hungary match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will then determine the payout to contract holders based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by their contracts. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several signals could influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Northern Ireland or Hungary would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts for the match day could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also play a role. As the match approaches, increased media coverage and expert analysis may also contribute to price fluctuations.