TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 5:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Northern Illinois and Iowa. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to resolve as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second quarter of play in the Northern Illinois vs Iowa college football game scheduled for September 5, 2026. If Iowa wins the second quarter by exceeding the specified point margin—from 2.5 to 23.5 points—the corresponding 'Iowa wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Northern Illinois wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin (2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective 'Northern Illinois wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official second-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve at a fair price, taking into account all known information up to that point.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies arise, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can be a useful exercise to identify potential value or mispricings, but it’s important to remember they represent different methodologies and motivations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter of the Northern Illinois vs Iowa game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the expected outcome. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the most likely spread, and the volume shows how much conviction they have in that belief.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second quarter of the Northern Illinois vs Iowa game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The contract corresponding to the actual point spread will pay out $1.00, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Northern Illinois or Iowa teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could lead to price adjustments as traders react to the evolving narrative surrounding the game. Unexpected coaching decisions or late-breaking team news are also potential catalysts.