TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 3:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, reflecting different levels of confidence in the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the North Texas vs Texas State college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. For Texas State markets, resolution is Yes if Texas State wins by more than the specified point differential; for North Texas markets, resolution is Yes if North Texas wins by more than the specified point differential. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess the probability of different outcomes. This can lead to differences, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and may be less influenced by initial public perception or promotional efforts. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, converging towards what the market considers a fair value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe North Texas will cover the spread, they’ll buy contracts representing that outcome, driving up the price.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the North Texas vs Texas St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The final spread will be the determining factor for payouts in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either North Texas or Texas St. would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the game, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or significant performance shifts in preceding games could also play a role. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.