TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 3:34 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on how decisively either team wins the final quarter of a college football game, measuring the point differential specifically in the last 15 minutes of play. Outcomes depend entirely on the scoring margin achieved in that single quarter, ignoring earlier game events or overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the North Carolina vs TCU college football game scheduled for August 29, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold: if TCU wins the quarter by more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the respective TCU markets resolve to Yes; if North Carolina wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the respective UNC markets resolve to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final quarter result. If the game fails to start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored in regulation 4th quarter play count—overtime points are excluded from all calculations.
Prediction market odds in this market reflect what traders on Kalshi believe about the 4th quarter spread, often differing from sportsbook lines due to unique positioning and liquidity conditions. While sportsbooks set their odds based on broader public betting and sharp money, Kalshi prices emerge organically from trader activity, potentially offering alternative insights into how the game might unfold in the final quarter.
This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score differential in the fourth quarter will determine if TCU meets the spread requirement, closing the market based on official game records.
Key signals that could shift this market include injury updates to star players, weather forecasts affecting game conditions, coaching strategies revealed in press conferences, and live in-game performance trends during the first three quarters. Any development that changes the perceived likelihood of TCU covering the fourth-quarter spread can cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi.