TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 6:05 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in a college football matchup, specifically measuring how much one team outscores the other in that final period. The contests evaluate whether a team secures a decisive lead in the last quarter of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the fourth quarter of the North Carolina versus Clemson college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the fourth quarter by more than the designated point margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—as outlined in the individual market rules. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point-differential thresholds defined in each market.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information sources and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing risk assessments, public perception, or even late-breaking news. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially regarding impactful events like injuries or coaching changes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective belief of the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Clemson will cover, the price for that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the 4th quarter of the North Carolina vs Clemson game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that accurately reflects the final point differential, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key players on either the North Carolina or Clemson teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected weather conditions could also impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or public sentiment shifts could drive the price in either direction. Monitoring these signals can help traders identify potential opportunities as the game approaches.