TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 2:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between North Carolina and Clemson. It centers on which team will have a scoring advantage in the third quarter and by how much, providing a granular view of in-game performance rather than the overall result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between North Carolina and Clemson exclusively during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with outcomes ranging from narrow margins (over 2.5 points) to larger leads (over 10.5 points), for both possible winners. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official third-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these resolutions, emphasizing the importance of in-quarter performance over the full game outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. As more people trade, the price tends to become a more accurate reflection of the true probability of the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news or events impact perceptions of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'yes' outcome (Clemson wins by more than the spread). On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling 'yes' contracts lowers the price. The market aggregates these individual actions to determine the overall implied probability.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the North Carolina vs Clemson game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will then determine whether Clemson won the 3rd quarter by more than the specified spread, and contracts will be settled accordingly. All trading will cease once the outcome is officially known and verified.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Clemson or North Carolina teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might shift trader sentiment. Finally, even public perception shifts based on analysis and commentary can drive volume and price changes in this market.