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402,751

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2,632

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Noche UFC: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos (Middleweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Belgaroui vs. Santos?

Volume:
$797,455

Yousri Belgaroui

 - Kalshi

Yousri Belgaroui - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 4:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yousri Belgaroui

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$401,323
N/A
N/A
$379,375
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$93,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Belgaroui to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Djorden Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$253,060
N/A
N/A
$241,046
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,248
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Santos to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the UFC fight between Yousri Belgaroui and Djorden Santos, scheduled as part of Noche UFC on September 12, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of “Noche UFC: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos (Middleweight, Prelims)” winning, as determined by official results reported on https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the official weigh-in results on September 11, 2026, as any last-minute changes could influence the fight’s dynamic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The winner markets are structured differently across platforms, with Polymarket offering separate markets for each fighter and Kalshi using a 'Yes' for each fighter winning structure.Hero tip: Be mindful of the market structure on each platform. The underlying resolution criteria are consistent, but the way you trade will differ slightly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Separate markets for each fighter winning. Resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner by the UFC. "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
  • Kalshi: Uses a 'Yes'/'No' structure for each fighter winning. Resolves 'Yes' if the fighter wins the fight. "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yousri Belgaroui" if Yousri Belgaroui is officially declared the winner of the fight against Djorden Santos at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Djorden Santos" if Djorden Santos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Yousri Belgaroui wins the Belgaroui vs Santos professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Djorden Santos wins the Belgaroui vs Santos professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the Belgaroui vs. Santos fight. Currently, there’s a consensus view forming around the fight’s duration, with Polymarket showing a 92 percent chance for the fight to go over 0.5 rounds, while Kalshi favors Yousri Belgaroui to win at 82 percent. Total volume across both platforms is $797,455, with $767,381 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive look at how the crowd anticipates the fight unfolding.

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance their risk, while prediction markets aggregate opinions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert analysis. The efficiency of prediction markets means they can sometimes incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.