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406,065

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Noche UFC: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of McMillen vs Rahiki?

Volume:
$5,045,082

Tommy McMillen

 - Kalshi

Tommy McMillen - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 7:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tommy McMillen

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,679,245
N/A
N/A
$1,766,567
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$417,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$58,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marwan Rahiki

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,869,747
N/A
N/A
$1,355,836
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

McMillen to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rahiki to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$446
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the UFC fight between Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki, specifically forecasting which fighter will win. Currently, the consensus probability of Tommy McMillen winning is 68.0%, as aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the UFC, as found on sources like UFC.com. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for resolution on September 13, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and will determine the official outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution criteria regarding win conditions, draw/no contest/cancellation handling, and the use of official UFC data.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC information (e.g., UFC.com, official fight announcements)

Core resolution logic:

  • The primary resolution source is the official result declared by the UFC.
  • A win is determined by the official winner declared by the UFC.
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 26, 2026, resolve to 50-50.
  • KO/TKO/Submission markets resolve based on the official method of victory.
  • Round-based markets resolve based on whether the fight ends before or after the specified time threshold.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Fight Ends Exactly on Threshold: For Over/Under round markets, if the fight ends *exactly* at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2), the market resolves to 50-50.
  • Technical Decision/Draw: A technical decision or a draw decided by judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds resolve 'Yes' for 'Fight to Go the Distance?' market. Technical draws before all rounds resolve 'No'.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official result of the fight is declared by the UFC, but no later than September 26, 2026, in cases of postponement.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Tommy McMillen" if Tommy McMillen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marwan Rahiki at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Marwan Rahiki" if Marwan Rahiki is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Tommy McMillen wins the McMillen vs Rahiki professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marwan Rahiki wins the McMillen vs Rahiki professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the McMillen vs. Rahiki fight. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong likelihood of the fight going over 0.5 rounds, with approximately 93 percent of the volume traded reflecting this expectation. Total volume for this market is $5,045,082, and 24-hour volume is $4,165,257. This allows traders to express their beliefs about the fight’s duration and potentially profit from discrepancies between predicted and actual results. The dashboard aggregates data from both venues to provide a comprehensive overview of market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade and express their views. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on fighter rankings and statistics, this market can quickly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment as the fight approaches.