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$134.2b

24H VOL:

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$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez?

Volume:
$3,020,855

Tim Elliott

 - Kalshi

Tim Elliott - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 5:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tim Elliott

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$911,424
N/A
N/A
$589,621
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$798,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Edgar Chairez

View
0%
67%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,297,380
N/A
N/A
$789,379
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$458
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cháirez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Elliott to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC flyweight fight between Tim Elliott and Édgar Cháirez, scheduled for September 12, 2026, will go over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 99.5% chance of “O/U 0.5 Rounds”. Resolution will be based on official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep a close watch on the fight itself on September 12, 2026, as the outcome will determine whether the fight concludes within the first half-round or extends beyond it.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Discrepancy in handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements between platforms.Hero tip: Prioritize markets on Polymarket for more comprehensive resolution rules, especially regarding fight cancellations or draws. Kalshi's markets are susceptible to ambiguity in these scenarios.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official UFC information, with a '50-50' outcome for draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 26, 2026. Includes specific rules for determining 'Yes' or 'No' for 'Fight to Go the Distance' based on judges' scorecards and technical decisions.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on who wins the fight. Lacks explicit rules for handling draws, no contests, cancellations, or postponements. No specific guidance on how ties are resolved.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Édgar Cháirez at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Édgar Cháirez" if Édgar Cháirez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the professional MMA fight between Tim Elliott and Edgar Chairez originally scheduled for September 12, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes, provided it happens within two weeks of the original date. If the fight ends in a tie or is declared a no contest, the market resolves as a 50/50 split for both participants. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks after the original date, the market resolves at a fair price as determined by the rules. These conditions apply uniformly to both fighters' markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for all possible scenarios.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market's prices are driven by traders actively buying and selling based on their own information and beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. The current 24-hour volume for this market is $2,884,947, indicating active trading and evolving probabilities.

Several signals could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even shifts in public perception could impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about weight class changes or potential rule modifications could also move the market. Increased volume on either Polymarket or Kalshi, particularly concentrated on a specific outcome, would also be a strong signal of changing sentiment. Monitoring fight-related news and social media trends will be key to understanding potential market movements.