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402,751

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Noche UFC: Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu (Lightweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu?

Volume:
$1,523,298

Rong Zhu

 - Kalshi

Rong Zhu - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Rong Zhu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$559,333
N/A
N/A
$381,935
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$16,372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rafa Garcia

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$716,840
N/A
N/A
$512,405
Settled
No
polymarket

Rafa Garcia vs. Rongzhu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$226,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$949
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rongzhu to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Garcia to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC lightweight fight between Rafa Garcia and Rongzhu at Noche UFC on September 12, 2026 will go over or under 2.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 99.5% chance of the fight going Over 2.5 Rounds, with resolution based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fighters’ performance and potential injuries leading up to the event on September 12, 2026, as these could significantly impact the fight’s duration.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The winner markets on Kalshi are structured as 'Yes' if the named fighter wins, while Polymarket has separate markets for each fighter. This creates a difference in how ties/no contests are resolved.Hero tip: Be mindful that a draw, no contest, or cancellation will resolve to '50-50' on Polymarket, but Kalshi's markets will not resolve to 'Yes' in those scenarios.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Separate markets for each fighter; resolves to the named fighter if they are officially declared the winner. Resolves to '50-50' for draws, no contests, or cancellations.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the named fighter wins. Does not explicitly address draws, no contests, or cancellations within the market description.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Rafa Garcia" if Rafa Garcia is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rongzhu at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Rongzhu" if Rongzhu is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Rafa Garcia wins the Garcia vs Zhu professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rong Zhu wins the Garcia vs Zhu professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the Garcia vs. Rongzhu fight. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $1,523,298, with $1,441,139 traded in the last 24 hours. The consensus view, based on current trading, suggests a strong expectation for the fight to go to a decision, with over 90% probability assigned to Over 0.5 Rounds on Polymarket. However, it's important to note that Kalshi shows a different leading outcome, indicating some disagreement among traders.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the likely outcome of the Garcia vs. Rongzhu fight. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each entity assesses the probabilities. It’s often useful to compare both to gain a more comprehensive view.