TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Noche UFC: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (Welterweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Salikhov vs Bahamondes?

Volume:
$1,213,210

Ignacio Bahamondes

 - Kalshi

Ignacio Bahamondes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 4:35 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ignacio Bahamondes

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$367,690
N/A
N/A
$287,743
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32,337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Muslim Salikhov

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$691,167
N/A
N/A
$590,520
Settled
No
polymarket

Muslim Salikhov vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bahamondes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Salikhov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC welterweight prelim fight between Muslim Salikhov and Ignacio Bahamondes will go over or under 2.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of “O/U 2.5 Rounds”. Resolution will be based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, as the outcome will be determined by the conclusion of the bout on September 13, 2026, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi only covers win conditions, while Polymarket accounts for draws, no contests, and cancellations.Hero tip: Consider the risk of a no contest or cancellation when trading on Kalshi. Polymarket provides more complete coverage of potential outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to a specific fighter winning or 50-50 for a draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond September 26, 2026. Includes markets for specific win conditions.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' only if either fighter wins. No provision for draws, no contests, or cancellations. "If Ignacio Bahamondes wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Muslim Salikhov wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Muslim Salikhov" if Muslim Salikhov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ignacio Bahamondes at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Ignacio Bahamondes" if Ignacio Bahamondes is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Ignacio Bahamondes wins the Bahamondes vs Salikhov professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Muslim Salikhov wins the Bahamondes vs Salikhov professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks predictions on the outcome of the Salikhov vs. Bahamondes fight. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong expectation for the fight to go over 0.5 rounds, with approximately 89 percent probability assigned to that outcome. Total volume across both venues is $1,213,210, and 24-hour volume is $1,020,164. This allows traders to express their beliefs about the fight’s duration and potentially profit from correctly anticipating how it will unfold. The dashboard aggregates data from both platforms to provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many individual bettors. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. It’s valuable to compare both to gain a comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes for the Salikhov vs. Bahamondes fight.

Several factors could influence the odds for this market before the fight takes place. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in weight class, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could all cause price movements. Unexpected announcements about fighter strategy or training could also impact predictions. Furthermore, any major upsets in other welterweight fights leading up to the event might affect perceptions of both Salikhov and Bahamondes’ chances, causing traders to adjust their positions accordingly.