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Noche UFC: JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin?

Volume:
$772,591

Regina Tarin

 - Kalshi

Regina Tarin - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 2:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Regina Tarin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$368,276
N/A
N/A
$274,020
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$3,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jj Aldrich

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$289,287
N/A
N/A
$220,656
Settled
No
polymarket

JJ Aldrich vs. Regina Tarin

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110,918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tarin to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Aldrich to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC fight between JJ Aldrich and Regina Tarin at Noche UFC will go over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the consensus probability of “O/U 0.5 Rounds” occurring is 99.6%. This prediction is an aggregation of views from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will be resolved using Official UFC information, such as data from UFC.com. Keep an eye on the fight itself, as the market will resolve based on the official result declared by the UFC on or before September 13, 2026, which is the estimated resolution date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi rely on the official UFC result to determine the outcome of the fight and its associated markets, with consistent handling of draws, No Contests, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC information (e.g., UFC.com)

Core resolution logic:

  • The primary resolution source is the official result declared by the UFC.
  • A win is determined by the official UFC result.
  • Draws decided by judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds resolve as a win for the fighter in question, depending on the market.
  • If the fight is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, all markets resolve to 50-50.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Technical Decision/Draw: Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve 'No' for markets asking about the method of victory, but 'Yes' for 'Fight to Go the Distance?'
  • Postponement: If the fight is postponed beyond September 26, 2026, all markets will resolve to 50-50.
  • Threshold Timing: For Over/Under round markets, the fight ending *exactly* at the threshold will resolve to 50-50.
Timing: Resolution will occur once the official result of the fight is declared by the UFC, or on September 27, 2026, if the fight has not taken place or has been postponed beyond the specified date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "JJ Aldrich" if JJ Aldrich is officially declared the winner of the fight against Regina Tarin at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Regina Tarin" if Regina Tarin is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Jj Aldrich wins the Aldrich vs Tarin professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Regina Tarin wins the Aldrich vs Tarin professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals wagering their own capital. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s important to compare both to gain a well-rounded understanding of potential outcomes for the Aldrich vs. Tarin fight.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base with varying levels of expertise and information, leading to different interpretations of the fight’s potential. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can indicate stronger conviction in a particular outcome. Additionally, the specific market types offered—for example, Over/Under rounds versus a straight win—can attract different traders and influence pricing. These dynamics create independent price discovery processes on each platform.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could impact predictions. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by social media discussions or expert analysis, could also move the market. Unexpected betting activity on Polymarket or Kalshi could also serve as a signal, indicating new information or a change in trader conviction regarding the Aldrich vs. Tarin fight.