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406,019

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2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Featherweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King?

Volume:
$847,600

Sean King III

 - Kalshi

Sean King III - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 2:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sean King III

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$290,701
N/A
N/A
$257,668
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
10¢
N/A
$434
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

King in Round 1

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

King to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jessie Rosas

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$291,026
N/A
N/A
$264,356
Settled
No
polymarket

Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$224,547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

King in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rosas to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

King in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rosas in Round 1

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rosas in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rosas in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether the Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King UFC fight will end in a decision or draw. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 100.0%. Resolution will be based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for September 12, 2026, as the outcome will determine whether this market resolves to a decision or draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market doesn't explicitly address draw/no contest scenarios, while Polymarket resolves to 50-50 in those cases.Hero tip: Consider the probability of a draw or no contest when trading the Kalshi winner market. Polymarket's 50-50 resolution for these outcomes provides a clearer risk assessment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the official winner or 50-50 for draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond September 26, 2026. "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins. Doesn't explicitly address draw/no contest scenarios. "If Sean King III wins the King III vs Rosas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jessie Rosas wins the King III vs Rosas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Jessie Rosas" if Jessie Rosas is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sean King at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Sean King" if Sean King is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Sean King III wins the King III vs Rosas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jessie Rosas wins the King III vs Rosas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likelihood of various outcomes for the Rosas vs. King fight. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong probability for outcomes over 0.5 rounds, with approximately 93 percent of the volume traded reflecting this expectation. Total volume for this market is $847,600, and the 24-hour volume is $752,299. This allows traders to express their predictions and hedge against potential risks associated with the fight, providing a collective forecast beyond traditional odds.

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert analysis. Furthermore, prediction markets allow for continuous price discovery as new information emerges, unlike the fixed odds offered by many sportsbooks. The efficiency of this market may provide a more accurate forecast than traditional methods.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could impact market sentiment. Unexpected betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could also create arbitrage opportunities, driving volume and price adjustments. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the fighters' chances of winning will likely move this market until the Rosas vs. King fight takes place.