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Noche UFC: Dan Ige vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Dan Ige vs. David Martinez?

Volume:
$1,174,892

David Martinez

 - Kalshi

David Martinez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 5:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

David Martinez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$433,496
N/A
N/A
$302,108
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dan Ige

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$529,456
N/A
N/A
$462,346
Settled
No
polymarket

Dan Ige vs. David Martinez

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$137,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ige to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Martinez to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$748
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC fight between Dan Ige and David Martinez on September 12, 2026, will go Over/Under 1.5 Rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 99.5% chance of the fight going Over 1.5 Rounds, with resolution determined by the official results posted on https://www.ufc.com/events. The markets also cover various other outcomes related to the fight, including method of victory. Keep an eye on the weigh-in results on September 11, 2026, as any last-minute changes could influence the fight’s likely duration.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi structures markets as 'Yes' for a specific fighter winning, while Polymarket has separate markets for each fighter, leading to different resolution for draws/no contests.Hero tip: Be aware that a draw or no contest will resolve to '50-50' on Polymarket, but may not be directly represented in Kalshi's 'Yes/No' structure. Consider hedging if you believe a non-decisive outcome is likely.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Separate markets for each fighter winning. Resolves to '50-50' for draws, no contests, or cancellations after September 26, 2026. "This market will resolve to "Dan Ige" if Dan Ige is officially declared the winner..."
  • Kalshi: Markets are structured as 'Yes' if a specific fighter wins. Does not explicitly state resolution for draws/no contests, implying a potential lack of coverage for these outcomes. "If David Martinez wins... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Dan Ige" if Dan Ige is officially declared the winner of the fight against David Martinez at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "David Martinez" if David Martinez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Both markets for the Martinez vs Ige fight resolve based on the winner of the originally scheduled professional MMA bout for September 12, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters, while cancellation or rescheduling beyond two weeks leads to a fair price resolution. Neither market is endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, and any UFC references are descriptive only.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the fight's outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. Examining both sets of odds provides a more comprehensive view of the potential for the Ige vs. Martinez fight.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Differences in market design – such as the types of outcomes offered or the liquidity available – also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, information flow and interpretation can vary between the two platforms, leading to differing expectations about the Ige vs. Martinez fight. These differences are a natural part of a decentralized prediction market system.