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Noche UFC: Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta?

Volume:
$2,529,572

Curtis Blaydes

 - Kalshi

Curtis Blaydes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 6:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Curtis Blaydes

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$945,511
N/A
N/A
$661,237
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$550,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$991,980
N/A
N/A
$665,691
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cortes Acosta to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Blaydes to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the UFC heavyweight fight between Curtis Blaydes and Waldo Cortes Acosta going over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates an 86.5% chance of the fight lasting over 0.5 rounds, based on data from https://www.ufc.com/events. This aggregation incorporates markets covering various win conditions and fight outcomes. Keep an eye on the official UFC event page as the fight approaches, with resolution expected around September 13, 2026, to confirm the final result and determine market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets lack a 50-50 resolution option for draws, no contests, or postponements, while Polymarket includes this outcome. Polymarket also offers more specific markets (e.g., win by KO/TKO).Hero tip: If you believe a draw, no contest, or postponement is likely, favor Polymarket markets. If you're confident in a clear winner, Kalshi may offer better liquidity.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to either fighter winning, or 50-50 for draw/no contest/postponement. Offers markets for how the fight ends (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision). "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
  • Kalshi: Resolves only to either fighter winning. No 50-50 option for draws, no contests, or postponements. "If Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Curtis Blaydes wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Curtis Blaydes" if Curtis Blaydes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Waldo Cortes Acosta at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Waldo Cortes Acosta" if Waldo Cortes Acosta is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Both markets for the Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes fight resolve based on the winner of the originally scheduled professional MMA bout for September 12, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. A tie or no contest results in a 50/50 resolution for both fighters, while cancellation or rescheduling beyond two weeks leads to a fair price resolution. Neither market is endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, and any UFC references are descriptive only.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the fight's outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently, incorporating new information and adjusting probabilities as the event nears.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders, leading to more efficient pricing, while Kalshi could be influenced by a larger number of casual bettors. Differences in market design and liquidity also contribute to these variations. The current volume of $1,754,419 suggests differing levels of interest across the platforms.