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406,422

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2,688

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5

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Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Moreno vs Morales?

Volume:
$4,126,948

Brandon Moreno

 - Kalshi

Brandon Moreno - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 7:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Brandon Moreno

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,220,603
N/A
N/A
$1,500,769
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$479,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Joseph Morales

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,410,667
N/A
N/A
$970,745
Settled
No
polymarket

Moreno to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Morales to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC fight between Brandon Moreno and Joseph Morales will go over or under 0.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability of “O/U 0.5 Rounds” occurring is 94.5%. This consensus view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will be resolved using Official UFC information (e.g., UFC.com). Keep an eye on the fight itself, as the outcome will be determined by the official result declared following the event window closing on September 26, 2026, as outlined in the resolution rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share the same core resolution logic, relying on official UFC results and a consistent handling of draws, no contests, cancellations, and postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official UFC information (e.g., UFC.com)

Core resolution logic:

  • The winner of the fight is determined by the official UFC declaration.
  • Draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond September 26, 2026, resolve to 50-50 in most markets.
  • Over/Under round markets resolve based on whether the fight exceeds a specific time threshold within a round.
  • KO/TKO and Submission markets resolve based on the official method of victory declared by the UFC.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Fight Ends Exactly on Threshold: For Over/Under round markets, if the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of a round), the market resolves to 50-50.
  • Technical Decision/Draw: A draw decided by judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds resolves 'Yes' for 'Fight to Go the Distance?' Technical decisions or technical draws resolve 'No'.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the official result of the fight is declared by the UFC, but no later than September 26, 2026, if the fight is postponed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Brandon Moreno" if Brandon Moreno is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joseph Morales at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Joseph Morales" if Joseph Morales is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Brandon Moreno wins the Moreno vs Morales professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joseph Morales wins the Moreno vs Morales professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Moreno vs. Morales fight. Currently, the aggregated view shows a consensus leaning towards Over/Under 0.5 Rounds, with a combined volume of $4,126,948 across both platforms. This allows users to see how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a unified view of market sentiment, aggregating data from multiple sources to give a comprehensive picture of expectations for this UFC event. The 24-hour volume is $2,805,078.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while prediction markets are driven by traders directly incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market, specifically, may show discrepancies with sportsbook odds due to differing information sources and risk assessments. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, leading to potentially more efficient pricing. However, sportsbooks often have higher liquidity.