TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 3:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the point differential in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, determining whether one team outperforms the other by a certain threshold during that quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential exclusively within the third quarter of the designated football game. Each rule specifies a different threshold for victory—ranging from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to larger margins such as over 10.5 points—either for the Detroit Lions or the New Orleans Saints. The outcome depends solely on points scored during the third quarter, with no consideration given to the overall game result or points from other quarters. All markets are independent, and only the specified threshold for each market needs to be met for it to resolve as 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves as 'No'. The governing league's official scoring and game records will determine the resolution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups, and neither guarantees the actual result of the game.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the 3rd quarter of the Saints versus Lions game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting the actual spread, and payouts will be determined by the contract's price at the time of resolution. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Saints or the Lions would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment and impact the price of contracts in this market. Public perception and analyst predictions may also play a role.