TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Nippon Ham Fighters vs. Saitama Seibu Lions
polymarket
kalshi

Nippon Ham Fighters vs. Saitama Seibu Lions

Volume:
$7,862

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 2.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 2.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$538
N/A
N/A
$497
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
$282
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nippon Ham Fighters vs. Saitama Seibu Lions

View
0%
66%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,164
N/A
N/A
$2,082
Settled
No
kalshi

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$790
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Nippon Ham Fighters and the Saitama Seibu Lions scheduled for August 12 at 5:00AM ET. The markets will resolve based on the game's result, with specific conditions for wins, ties, cancellations, and postponements.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental market structure divergence: Polymarket uses team-based binary outcomes while Kalshi uses run-differential triggers creating multiple potential win conditionsHero tip: Do not treat these markets as interchangeable. Polymarket pays out based on which team wins, while Kalshi pays out based on run differentials regardless of which team wins. This creates asymmetric risk profiles that cannot be arbitraged.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Simple win/loss/draw market: "If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to Nippon Ham Fighters. If the Saitama Seibu Lions win, the market will resolve to Saitama Seibu Lions. If the game is canceled entirely... this market will resolve 50-50."
  • Kalshi: Run-differential trigger market: "If the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win by more than 1.5 runs... resolves to Yes. If the Saitama Seibu Lions win by more than 1.5 runs... resolves to Yes." Multiple distinct win conditions create a yes/no market unrelated to team identity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 12 at 5:00AM ET: If the Nippon Ham Fighters win, the market will resolve to "Nippon Ham Fighters". If the Saitama Seibu Lions win, the market will resolve to "Saitama Seibu Lions". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event evaluates different run-differential thresholds for both teams in a single baseball game between the Saitama Seibu Lions and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. Four distinct markets resolve based on whether either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 runs. If the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win by greater than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If they win by more than 1.5 runs (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Saitama Seibu Lions win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 1.5 runs (but not exceeding 2.5), the third market resolves to Yes. All markets share the same underlying game, scheduled for August 12, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT, and all disclaim any official affiliation with the governing league or its intellectual property.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Fighters vs. Lions matchup market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes. It tracks total volume of $7,862 and recent 24-hour volume of $7,660, letting you see where interest is concentrated. The view updates continuously, reflecting shifts in sentiment as the game approaches. This consolidated snapshot helps users compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users are positioning themselves ahead of the event.

Injuries, pitching changes, and weather updates can shift this market sharply as the game nears. Key starters skipping warmups or late-lineup swaps may cause rapid re-pricing, especially on lower-volume platforms. Any last-minute news that alters perceived odds will push traders to adjust positions, often amplifying moves on Polymarket or Kalshi depending on where liquidity resides.