TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 9:07 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Ningbo Professional and Shaanxi Union FC in China's League 1. The result will be determined by the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. Markets will reflect whether either team wins outright or if the game ends in a tie within this regulation time frame.
The event consists of three mutually exclusive markets resolving based on the match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The 'Ningbo Professional' market resolves to Yes if Ningbo Professional wins in regulation time. The 'Shaanxi Union FC' market resolves to Yes if Shaanxi Union FC wins in regulation time. The 'Tie' market resolves to Yes if the game ends level after regulation time. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. No outcomes consider extra time or penalty shootouts, as resolution is strictly based on regulation time results.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can take the opposite position, driving the odds on Kalshi in a different direction. This can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This creates a self-regulating system where the market price converges towards the true probability.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the Ningbo Professional versus Shaanxi Union FC match in the Chinese Super League. The platform will verify the final score and declare the winning outcome based on this information. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Ningbo Professional or Shaanxi Union FC could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from reputable sports analysts, could also impact the odds. Major upsets in other Chinese Super League matches, or even broader trends in the league, might also cause traders to reassess their positions and adjust their bids on Kalshi.