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471,138

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Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
polymarket
kalshi

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

Total volume:
$411,851
Volume 24h:
$10,827
12%
Liquidity:
$13,425
163%
Open interest:
$33,379
0.26%

1480+

 - Polymarket

1480+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

31%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33.8¢ buys you 296 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $296 | Net Profit: $196 Multiplier: 2.96x | ROI: 196% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1480+

Trade
31%
3%
Yes 33.8¢No 71.4¢
5.2¢
$2,414
$55,088
4%
14%
N/A
N/A
active
kalshi

above 1515

Trade
31%
Yes 28¢No 75¢
3¢
N/A
$32,772
4%
7%
$8,765
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

above 1520

Trade
30%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
N/A
$9,815
5%
7%
$4,771
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

above 1495

Trade
28%
5%
Yes 24¢No 78¢
2¢
N/A
$14,274
2%
3%
$3,034
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

1495+

Trade
26%
2%
Yes 26¢No 75¢
1¢
$2,199
$49,004
0.53%
12%
N/A
N/A
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
26.1%
Yes 25¢No 76.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

above 1505

Trade
25%
Yes 24¢No 80¢
4¢
N/A
$8,963
10%
10%
$1,731
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

1510+

Trade
25%
2%
Yes 26.9¢No 77.4¢
4.3¢
$2,554
$55,381
0.18%
7%
N/A
N/A
active
kalshi

above 1510

Trade
24%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$16,758
3%
8%
$4,340
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.6%
Yes 25.5¢No 77.2¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 4.3¢
polymarket

1490+

Trade
25%
3%
Yes 25¢No 75.9¢
0.9¢
$2,767
$64,576
2%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

above 1490

Trade
23%
Yes 25¢No 78¢
3¢
N/A
$19,296
4%
19%
$4,078
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.2%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

1500+

Trade
25%
9%
Yes 26¢No 77¢
3¢
$3,490
$60,374
4%
12%
N/A
N/A
active
kalshi

above 1500

Trade
23%
7%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
2¢
N/A
$25,551
5%
8%
$6,658
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.1%
Yes 25.5¢No 77¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the next Google Gemini Pro model achieving a debut score of at least 1480 on the Arena Leaderboard. Currently, the consensus probability estimates a 35.0% chance of this outcome, with Polymarket and Kalshi aggregating to this view. A secondary outcome, Gemini 3.5 Pro debuting with *any* arena score, is currently estimated at 33.0%. Resolution will be determined by whether a model labeled Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1490 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before January 1, 2027, which is the date to watch for a potential resolution trigger.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses a next-day timing window and a specific time (12:00 PM ET) for resolution, while Kalshi uses a 'before' date condition (Jan 1, 2027). Kalshi also offers multiple threshold options.Hero tip: Consider the timing difference when trading. Polymarket's resolution is delayed, while Kalshi's is more immediate, up to the cutoff date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the next Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debuts at a score of at least 1480 (or 1490, 1500, 1510) at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its first appearance. Focuses on the 'Score' column with style control off.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if a Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater model scores above 1490, 1495, 1500, 1505, 1510, 1515, or 1520 on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) *before* January 1, 2027.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the performance of any Gemini model labeled as "Gemini 3.5 Pro" or greater when it first appears on the Arena AI Text Score leaderboard (Remove Style Control). Each market resolves Yes if the initial qualifying Gemini 3.5 Pro or higher model exceeds its respective score threshold before January 1, 2027. If multiple Gemini models meeting the version requirement are subsequently added to the leaderboard, only the highest-scoring model among those added initially will be used for resolution purposes. Any Gemini models added after the first qualifying model will not affect the resolution outcome. The seven markets represent progressively higher performance targets: above 1490, 1495, 1500, 1505, 1510, 1515, and 1520 on the Arena AI Text Score metric.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks predictions regarding the first public appearance of Google’s next Gemini Pro model in an arena-style evaluation. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view of when this debut is likely to occur. Currently, the total volume across both venues is $411,851, with $10,827 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see a combined assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes for the Gemini Pro model debut, offering a comprehensive look at the prediction market for the Gemini Pro model debut.

Prediction market odds, such as those seen in this market, often represent a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective that can differ from individual analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or limited information, while the market incorporates a wider range of viewpoints through incentivized trading. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the aggregated predictions within this market offer a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes. The market’s price reflects the combined judgment of many participants, potentially leading to more accurate predictions than those from single sources.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi on this market can arise due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules contribute to varying price discovery processes on each platform. Furthermore, differing levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each venue can lead to divergent opinions about the timing of the Gemini Pro model debut. These factors result in potentially different implied probabilities, even though both platforms address the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the first widely publicized and accessible launch of the next Google Gemini Pro model in a public arena. This means a general availability release, not a limited beta or internal testing phase. The outcome will be determined by independent verification against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event's occurrence.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Google regarding the Gemini Pro model’s development timeline or release plans would be a major catalyst. Leaks or credible reports from tech journalists regarding the launch date could also cause substantial price movement. Unexpected delays in the model's development, or positive news about its performance, could shift expectations. Broader developments in the AI landscape, such as competitor announcements, could also influence trading activity in this market.