TOTAL VOLUME:
$62b
24H VOL:
$247,368,872
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,359,628,193
584,096
Markets across
14,555
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,195
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once by the end of 2027. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 76.0%. The resolution source is the Federal Reserve's official policy decisions, with the market resolving Yes if a rate hike occurs by June 30, 2027. Watch the Fed's policy announcements and economic data releases through 2027, as inflation trends, employment figures, and central bank communications will be critical signals for whether rate increases resume.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the Next Fed rate hike contract is priced as a binary outcome with yes and no shares trading between 0 and 100 cents. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently reflects implied probability, meaning traders collectively assess that likelihood for a rate hike by the resolution date. Prices move continuously as new economic data, inflation reports, and Fed communications arrive. Traders buy yes shares if they expect a hike or no shares if they expect rates to remain steady, with the spread between bid and ask prices reflecting uncertainty and liquidity at any given moment.
The Next Fed rate hike market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution is determined by whether the Federal Reserve has announced and implemented an interest rate increase by that date. The outcome hinges on official Fed decisions communicated through FOMC statements and rate announcements. Economic conditions, inflation trends, employment data, and forward guidance from Fed officials all influence whether a rate hike occurs before the deadline. Traders monitor these fundamental drivers to adjust their positions as the resolution date approaches.
Key catalysts include monthly inflation reports (CPI and PCE), employment data, and Fed communications such as speeches and policy statements. Unexpected economic shocks—recession signals, financial stress, or geopolitical events—can rapidly shift rate-hike expectations. FOMC meeting announcements and changes to forward guidance carry outsized impact on market prices. Real GDP growth, wage growth, and commodity prices also influence Fed decision-making and trader sentiment. Any surprise in these indicators can trigger sharp repricing of the contract as participants reassess the probability of a rate hike by the resolution deadline.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.