TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
September 28
- Polymarket
September 28 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Closed: Sep 28, 4:08 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prevailing sentiment regarding the next Claude release, as reflected by this market, is being compared to expectations from AI analysts and industry observers. While specific analyst forecasts vary, many anticipate a release within the next year. This market allows for a more dynamic and aggregated prediction, as traders continuously update their beliefs based on new information. It’s a way to see if the wisdom of the crowd aligns with, or diverges from, expert opinions on the timing of this significant AI development.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a specific release date is likely, the price of shares representing that date will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease, reflecting the changing collective prediction about the next Claude release.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the release date of the next Claude Sonnet model is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on an official announcement from Anthropic regarding the availability of the new model. This market aims to predict the precise date of the release, and the resolution will reflect that specific date as confirmed by Anthropic’s public statements and documentation. The outcome will be determined by the first publicly available release date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding development progress, beta testing programs, or planned release windows would be major catalysts. Leaks or credible reports from industry insiders could also cause substantial shifts in the market. Furthermore, major breakthroughs or setbacks in AI safety research, or competitive pressures from other AI developers, could influence expectations about Anthropic’s release timeline. Any news related to the capabilities or performance of the next Claude model is likely to move this market.
